在达沃斯论坛上，马斯克接受了贝莱德首席执行官兼世界经济论坛临时联合主席拉里·芬克的采访。采访中，马斯克谈及了他庞大商业帝国的许多方面，但并未提供多少新的细节。

以下是马斯克发言的要点及完整实录：

I.Introduction and Tesla’s Investment Returns

一、开场白与特斯拉投资回报

Opening Remarks

开场白

LARRY FINK：That was not a large applause. Start again. That’s better. Thank you.

拉里·芬克：掌声声势不大。请重新开始。这样更好。谢谢。

ELON MUSK：Yeah, we’re going to make this interesting.

埃隆·马斯克：没错，我们会让这事儿变得有意思。

LARRY FINK：How many quotes are you going to want that are going to be after this session?

拉里·芬克：这次会议结束后，您需要多少份引文？

ELON MUSK：I don’t know. I mean, five.

埃隆·马斯克：我不知道。我的意思是，五个。

LARRY FINK：Okay, so good afternoon, everyone. It’s great to see everybody here. It’s been an amazing week here in Davos. Hopefully everybody saw that we are having conversations here. Hopefully everybody agrees. There are some conversations that we may disagree. There’s many conversations we may have agreed. But through those conversations, and I think today’s result with a peace agreement earlier today, the World Economic Forum is here to have those conversations, to have understandings and also resolution. So it’s an important component of who we and what we are. And I’m thrilled to have Elon Musk here. He came all the way from California to be here to see all of you. So thank you, Elon.

拉里·芬克：各位下午好！很高兴见到大家齐聚于此。在达沃斯度过的这一周真是精彩纷呈。希望各位都能看到我们正在进行的对话——或许有些观点存在分歧，但更多共识正在形成。通过这些对话，以及今天早些时候达成的和平协议，世界经济论坛始终致力于推动对话、增进理解并寻求解决方案。这正是我们身份与使命的重要体现。特别感谢埃隆·马斯克从加州专程前来与会，这让我倍感荣幸。埃隆，感谢你的到来！

ELON MUSK：You’re always welcome. I heard about the formation of the peace summit and I was like, is that P-I-E-C? You know, little piece of Greenland, a little piece of Venezuela. We got one. All we want is peace. Okay.

埃隆·马斯克：欢迎随时来。听说要搞和平峰会，我当场就问：这是P-I-E-C吗？就是格陵兰岛的一小块地，委内瑞拉的一小块地。我们搞定了，就为了和平。行吧。

Tesla’s Remarkable Returns and Investment Opportunities

特斯拉的非凡回报与投资机遇

LARRY FINK：I want to, as I said, I’m a pretty proud CEO of BlackRock. Since we went public, the compounding return of BlackRock to our shareholders with 21%. Since Elon took Tesla public, his compounded return is 43%. This is just another advertisement for everybody, especially for Europeans. This is why more citizens should be investing with growth, investing with their countries. Imagine if a lot of pension funds invested with Elon Musk when Tesla went public and how much we return with all the pension funds that invested side by side with Elon and the growth. So a spectacular return. There are very few companies. Well, I don’t think there’s any other company as large as Tesla today that has that compounded return. So congratulations. I think a good measurement.

拉里·芬克：正如我所说，作为贝莱德的CEO，我深感自豪。自公司上市以来，贝莱德为股东带来的复利回报率已达21%。而埃隆·马斯克让特斯拉上市后，其复利回报率更是飙升至43%。这简直就是给所有人，尤其是欧洲人的一则广告。正因如此，更多民众应该投资增长型资产，投资自己的国家。试想当年特斯拉上市时，若大量养老基金都选择跟随埃隆·马斯克投资，当这些养老基金与特斯拉共同成长时，我们能获得多么惊人的回报。这样的复利收益在当今企业中实属罕见。要说能与特斯拉比肩的公司，恐怕再难找到。恭喜你们！我认为这确实是一个很好的衡量标准。

ELON MUSK：Well, we have an incredible team at Tesla and that’s the reason.

埃隆·马斯克：我们特斯拉团队实力超群，这正是成功的关键。

II. Cross-domain Engineering Challenges and Civilizational Mission

二、跨领域工程挑战与文明使命

Engineering Across Multiple Frontiers

跨领域工程挑战

LARRY FINK：So I want to get into the dirt, the meaningful component about technology, the possibilities. I want to talk about AI and robotics, energy, space, and the progress ultimately coming down to engineering, engineering discipline, scale, execution. And few people, if not anyone, has the experience and the fortitude to confront these issues head on. Not just the ideas, but the execution across so many different technologies, Elon. And that’s why I thought it was important for us to have this dialogue here in Davos. So you’re presently building on AI, on robotics, on space, on energy, all at the same time. When you look across those efforts, what do they have in common from an engineering standpoint?

拉里·芬克：我想深入探讨技术的核心价值与可能性。我要谈谈人工智能、机器人技术、能源、太空探索，以及这些技术最终都归结于工程学——工程学科、规模与实施。埃隆，几乎没有人具备直面这些挑战的经验和毅力，不仅要应对理念层面的挑战，更要实现跨技术领域的落地执行。这就是为什么我认为在达沃斯进行这样的对话至关重要。您目前正在同步推进人工智能、机器人技术、太空探索和能源开发。从工程学视角来看，这些领域的共同点是什么？

ELON MUSK：Well, they’re all very difficult technology challenges. But the overall goal of my companies is to maximize the future of civilization. Basically maximize the probability that civilization has a great future and to expand consciousness beyond Earth. So take SpaceX for example. SpaceX is about advancing rocket technology to the point where we can extend life and consciousness beyond Earth to the moon, to Mars, eventually to other star systems. And I think we should always view consciousness, life as we know it as precarious and delicate, because to the best of our knowledge, we don’t know of life anywhere else. You know, I’m often asked, “Are there aliens among us?” And I’ll say that I am one.

埃隆·马斯克：这些技术挑战确实都极具难度。但我的公司始终致力于实现文明的终极目标——最大化人类文明的未来可能性，将意识拓展至地球之外。以SpaceX为例，我们正致力于将火箭技术推向新高度，让人类生命与意识能够跨越地球，抵达月球、火星，最终探索其他恒星系统。我认为，我们应当始终将已知的生命形式视为脆弱而精妙的存在，毕竟根据现有认知，其他星球上尚未发现生命迹象。常有人问我：“我们身边是否存在外星生命？”我的回答是：我就是其中一员。

LARRY FINK：Or you’re from the future.

拉里·芬克：或者你是来自未来。

ELON MUSK：They don’t believe me, okay? So I think if anyone would know if there are aliens among us, it would be me. And we have 9,000 satellites up there and not once have we had to maneuver around an alien spaceship. So I’m like, I don’t know. Bottom line is I think we need to assume that life and consciousness is extremely rare and it might only be us. And if that’s the case, then we need to do everything possible to ensure that the light of consciousness is not extinguished, because we’re effectively, the way I view it is the measure in my mind is of a tiny candle in a vast darkness, a tiny candle of consciousness that could easily go out. And that’s why it’s important to make life multiplanetary, such that if there is a natural disaster or a man-made disaster on Earth, that consciousness continues. That’s the purpose of SpaceX.

埃隆·马斯克：他们根本不信我，明白吗？所以如果要我说谁最清楚我们身边有没有外星人，那非我莫属。我们有9000颗卫星在太空运行，却从未被迫躲避过外星飞船。说实话，我也不确定。但核心观点是：我们必须假设生命和意识极其罕见，可能只有我们存在。若果真如此，我们就必须竭尽所能确保意识之光永不熄灭——因为在我的认知中，这就像浩瀚黑暗中的一支微弱烛光，一盏随时可能熄灭的意识之烛。正因如此，让生命具备多星球传播能力至关重要：即便地球遭遇自然灾害或人为灾难，意识仍能延续。这正是SpaceX存在的意义。

III. Artificial Intelligence, Robotics and the Road to Prosperity

三、人工智能、机器人与通往富足之路

AI, Robotics, and the Path to Abundance

人工智能、机器人与通往富足之路

ELON MUSK：Tesla is obviously about sustainable technology. And also at this point we’ve sort of added to our mission sustainable abundance. So with robotics and AI, this is really the path to abundance for all. People often talk about solving global poverty or essentially how do we give everyone a very high standard of living. I think the only way to do this is AI and robotics, which doesn’t mean that it is without its issues. I mean, we need to be very careful with AI, we need to be very careful with robotics. We don’t want to find ourselves in a James Cameron movie. You know, Terminator, he’s got great movies, love his movies. But we don’t want to be in Terminator, obviously. But if you have ubiquitous AI that is essentially free or close to it and ubiquitous robotics, then you will have an explosion in the global economy, an expansion in the global economy that is truly beyond all precedent.

埃隆·马斯克：特斯拉的核心使命显然是可持续技术。如今我们又增添了可持续繁荣这一新目标。通过机器人技术和人工智能，这将成为实现全民富裕的真正途径。人们常谈论解决全球贫困问题，或者说如何让每个人都能过上高水准的生活。我认为实现这一目标的唯一途径就是人工智能和机器人技术，但这并不意味着它们没有问题。我们必须对人工智能和机器人技术保持高度警惕。我们可不想重蹈詹姆斯·卡梅隆电影《终结者》的覆辙——虽然他拍的电影很棒，但显然我们不想成为《终结者》里的角色。但如果人工智能和机器人技术真正普及到无处不在，且基本免费或接近免费，那么全球经济将迎来真正前所未有的爆发式增长。

LARRY FINK：Elon, can that expansion be broad?

拉里·芬克：埃隆，这种扩展能扩大范围吗？

ELON MUSK：Yes.

埃隆·马斯克：当然。

LARRY FINK：Or is it narrow and how can that be created? How can it broaden the global economy?

拉里·芬克：还是说它过于狭隘，该如何构建？又该如何推动全球经济的扩大？

ELON MUSK：Yeah, I mean, the way to think of it is that if you have a large number of humanoid robots, the economic output is the average productivity per robot times the number of robots. Right. My prediction is that in an optimistic future scenario, we will make so many robots and AI that they will literally meet all human needs. To the point where you can’t even think of something to ask the robots to do. Goods and services will be extremely abundant. My prediction is that there will be more robots than humans.

埃隆·马斯克：没错，说白了，如果部署大量类人机器人，其经济产出就是单个机器人的平均生产力乘以机器人数量。我的预测是，在乐观的未来场景中，我们将制造出如此多的机器人和人工智能，它们将真正满足人类的所有需求。届时你甚至想不出还能让机器人做什么。商品和服务将变得极其丰富。我预测，未来机器人数量将超过人类。

LARRY FINK：But in that future, what is the purpose of humans?

拉里·芬克：但在那个未来，人类存在的意义究竟是什么？

ELON MUSK：Yeah, nothing is perfect. But we have to recognize a reality：you can’t have both extreme material abundance and mandatory labor requirements. If some jobs have to be done by humans, then abundance is narrow. But if you have billions of humanoid robots—and I believe we will—everyone on Earth will want one. Who wouldn’t want a robot to help take care of their kids, their pets? A lot of people say taking care of elderly parents is very hard and expensive.

埃隆·马斯克：确实，世上没有完美之事。但我们必须认清一个现实：物质极度丰裕与强制劳动要求无法并存。若某些工作必须由人类完成，那么丰裕便显得狭隘。但若全球拥有数十亿类人机器人——我相信终将实现——地球上的每个人都将渴望拥有一台。谁不希望机器人帮忙照顾孩子和宠物呢？许多人坦言，赡养年迈父母既艰难又耗费不菲。

LARRY FINK：Yes, and there aren’t enough young people.

拉里·芬克：确实如此，而且年轻人数量不足。

ELON MUSK：Exactly, not enough young people to take care of the elderly. If you have a robot that can care for and protect elderly parents, that would be amazing. So I’m generally very optimistic about the future; we’re moving towards an era of amazing abundance. It’s very cool, we’re living in the most interesting time in history.

埃隆·马斯克：确实如此，年轻人数量不足难以照料老年人。若能研发出可照料并保护年迈父母的机器人，那将意义非凡。因此我对未来持乐观态度——我们正迈向一个丰饶时代的曙光。这实在令人振奋，我们正身处人类历史上最富饶的时期。

IV. Aging, Longevity, and the Meaning of Life

四、衰老、长寿与生命意义

Aging, Longevity, and the Meaning of Life

衰老、长寿与生命意义

LARRY FINK：In this new history, can we reverse aging? Will we live to see it?

拉里·芬克：在这部新历史中，我们能否逆转衰老？我们能否亲眼见证这一过程？

ELON MUSK：I haven’t put much time into aging research. I do think it is a very solvable problem. I think when we figure out what causes aging, I think we’ll find it’s incredibly obvious. It’s not a subtle thing. The reason I say that is because almost all the cells in your body age at roughly the same rate. I’ve never seen anyone with an older left arm and a younger right arm in my life. So why is that? There must be a “clock” synchronizing the aging of the approximately 35 trillion cells in our bodies. Honestly, there are benefits to death. If people lived forever or extremely long lives, society would risk becoming rigid and stagnant, losing vitality. That being said, I do think we will find ways to extend lifespan, and possibly even reverse aging. It’s highly likely.

埃隆·马斯克：我并未投入太多时间在衰老研究上。但我确实认为这是一个非常可解决的问题。当我们将弄清衰老的成因时，就会发现其机制极其明显，绝非微妙之事。我之所以这么说，是因为人体内几乎所有细胞的衰老速率都大致相同。在我的一生中，从未见过有人左臂衰老而右臂年轻的情况。那么这是为什么呢？必定存在一个“时钟”在同步调控我们体内约35万亿个细胞的衰老过程。老实说，死亡也有其益处。如果人类能够永生或极长寿，社会将面临僵化停滞、丧失活力的风险。话虽如此，我认为我们终将找到延长寿命的方法，甚至可能逆转衰老。这种可能性极高。

V. Bottleneck of Artificial Intelligence Development: Energy Crisis

五、人工智能发展的瓶颈：能源危机

Bottlenecks to AI, Energy, and Broad Prosperity

人工智能与普惠繁荣的瓶颈

LARRY FINK：The future you talk about—AI models, autonomous machines, rockets—depends on massive increases in computing, massive increases in energy, expensive energy manufacturing scale. What are the bottlenecks to get there? And once again, with all that expenditure, how can we make sure that it’s broad, not narrow?

拉里·芬克：你所设想的未来——人工智能模型、自主机器、火箭——都依赖于计算能力的大幅增长、能源消耗的激增以及高昂的能源制造规模。实现这些目标的瓶颈是什么？再次强调，面对如此巨额投入，我们如何确保其应用广泛而非局限？

ELON MUSK：I just think the natural thing is it’s going to be very broad because AI companies will seek as many customers as they possibly can. And the cost of AI will get, is already very low and it’s plummeting every year. I mean, the cost of AI is almost meaningfully changing on a month to month basis.

埃隆·马斯克表示：我认为这将是大势所趋，因为人工智能公司会竭力拓展客户群体。目前人工智能成本已处于极低水平，且每年持续下降。事实上，其成本几乎每月都在发生显著变化。

LARRY FINK：Yes, very. There’s open models and the open models only lack, they’re maybe a year behind the sort of closed models. So I think the AI companies will seek as many customers as possible, which means they’ll provide AI to the world.

拉里·芬克：确实如此。开放模型虽然存在，但其发展速度可能比封闭模型慢一年左右。因此我认为AI企业会尽可能广泛地拓展客户群体，这意味着他们将向全球提供AI服务。

LARRY FINK：But the cost of getting there—the compute, the chips, the fabs, the powering of that—what are the bottlenecks?

拉里·芬克：但实现这一目标的成本——包括计算资源、芯片、晶圆厂以及配套供电系统——存在哪些瓶颈？

Solar solutions

太阳能解决方案

ELON MUSK：Frankly, the fundamental limiting factor for AI deployment is electricity, energy. We’re seeing the rate of AI chip production increase exponentially, but the rate of electricity being brought online is 3%, 4% a year, max. It’s clear that we’re very soon, maybe even later this year, we’ll be producing more chips than we can turn on. Except for China.

埃隆·马斯克直言不讳地指出，人工智能部署的核心瓶颈在于电力供应。尽管芯片产量正以指数级增长，但电网新增装机容量却仅以每年3%-4%的速度推进。可以预见，我们很快就会面临芯片产能过剩的局面——或许就在今年年底，届时将出现供不应求的局面。不过中国的情况有所不同。

LARRY FINK：They’re building 100 gigawatts of nuclear as we speak.

拉里·芬克：目前他们正在建设100吉瓦的核电项目。

ELON MUSK：Yes. China’s solar production capacity is about 1,500 gigawatts per year, and they’re deploying over 1,000 gigawatts of solar annually. For continuous solar power paired with batteries, that’s around 250 gigawatts of steady-state power. That’s half of the average U.S. electricity consumption. Solar is by far the largest source of energy. When you look at the solar system, the sun accounts for 99.8% of its mass, Jupiter 0.1%, and everything else is negligible. Even if you burned Jupiter in a thermonuclear reactor, the sun’s energy would still round up to 100%. So everything is about the sun.

埃隆·马斯克：没错。中国太阳能发电装机容量每年约1500吉瓦，实际年装机量超过1000吉瓦。若将太阳能与电池结合使用，可稳定输出约250吉瓦的持续电力，这相当于美国平均用电量的一半。太阳能无疑是最大的能源来源。从太阳系来看，太阳占99.8%的质量，木星仅占0.1%，其余部分几乎可以忽略不计。即便用热核反应堆烧毁木星，太阳的能量总量仍能保持100%。所以说，太阳才是宇宙的主宰。

LARRY FINK：We’ve discussed before—tell the audience, how much land area in the U.S. with what geography would be needed to power the entire U.S. with solar? And then why aren’t we doing more of this?

拉里·芬克：我们之前讨论过——能否向观众说明，要让全美实现太阳能供电，需要多少地理条件适宜的土地面积？另外，为什么我们没有更多地推进这类项目？

ELON MUSK：Roughly 100 miles by 100 miles (about 160 km by 160 km) of solar panels would be enough to power the entire United States. That’s a tiny fraction of U.S. land—you could put it in a corner of Utah, Nevada, or New Mexico—though not all in one place. Same for Europe：you could use sparsely populated areas like Spain or Sicily to power the entire continent.

埃隆·马斯克表示：约100英里×100英里（约160公里×160公里）的太阳能电池板阵列，足以满足全美用电需求。虽然仅占美国国土面积的极小部分——相当于犹他州、内华达州或新墨西哥州的某个角落——但并非全部集中部署。欧洲情况类似：西班牙或西西里岛等人口稀少地区，同样可以为整个欧洲大陆供电。

LARRY FINK：So why do you think the U.S. and Europe aren’t moving more aggressively in this direction?

拉里·芬克：那么，您认为美国和欧洲为何没有在这方面采取更积极的行动呢？

ELON MUSK：They are, but not as much as China. Unfortunately, in the U.S., tariff barriers for solar are extremely high, which artificially inflates the cost of deploying solar because China makes almost all the solar panels. SpaceX and Tesla are each working to build 100 gigawatts per year of solar manufacturing capacity in the U.S.—it’ll probably take about three years. I encourage others to do the same. We obviously don’t control U.S. tariff policy, but for other countries, I would recommend leveraging China’s extremely low-cost solar cells for large-scale deployment.

埃隆·马斯克：确实如此，但中国的优势更为显著。遗憾的是，美国对太阳能产品的关税壁垒过高，这人为抬高了太阳能部署成本——毕竟中国几乎生产了全球所有太阳能电池板。SpaceX和特斯拉都在努力将美国的太阳能制造产能提升至每年100吉瓦，预计需要三年时间。我鼓励其他国家也采取类似举措。虽然我们无法左右美国的关税政策，但对于其他国家，我建议可以利用中国极低成本的太阳能电池进行大规模部署。

VI. Humanoid Robots and Autonomous Driving

六、人形机器人与自动驾驶

Humanoid Robotics and Autonomous Driving

人形机器人与自动驾驶

LARRY FINK：I know you have some big announcements coming up about robotics and what they can do.

拉里·芬克：我知道你们即将发布关于机器人技术及其应用潜力的重大公告。

ELON MUSK：Humanoid robotics will advance very quickly. We have some Tesla Optimus robots performing simple tasks in factories now. By the end of this year, they’ll be doing more complex tasks. By the end of next year, we will probably be selling humanoid robots to the public. We’ll ensure they have extremely high reliability, safety, and functionality—you can ask them to do almost anything. Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) is now so safe that some insurance companies are offering customers half-price insurance if they use FSD in their cars. Autonomous driving is essentially a solved problem from a technical standpoint. Tesla has rolled out robo-taxi services in a few cities and will have very widespread robo-taxis in the U.S. by the end of this year. We hope to get approval for supervised full self-driving in Europe as early as next month, with a similar timeline for China.

埃隆·马斯克：人形机器人技术将实现跨越式发展。目前特斯拉Optimus机器人已在工厂完成基础作业，到今年年底将拓展至复杂任务领域。预计明年年底，我们将面向大众推出商用型人形机器人。这些机器人将具备超高可靠性、安全性和多功能性——几乎能完成任何指令。特斯拉的全自动驾驶（FSD）系统安全性已获业界认可，部分保险公司甚至推出半价保险优惠。从技术层面看，自动驾驶已基本攻克技术难关。特斯拉已在多个城市试运行机器人出租车服务，预计今年年底将在全美实现大规模部署。我们有望最早于下月在欧洲获得监管型全自动驾驶认证，中国相关审批流程也将同步推进。

VII. Starship Reusability and Space AI Data Center

七、星舰可重复使用与太空AI数据中心

Starship, Reusability, and Space-Based AI

星舰、可重复使用与太空人工智能

LARRY FINK：What about Starship and the goals for SpaceX this year?

拉里·芬克：那么，关于星际飞船项目以及SpaceX今年的目标呢？

ELON MUSK：A key breakthrough SpaceX hopes to achieve this year is full reusability for Starship. No one has ever achieved full rocket reusability before. Falcon 9 achieved partial reusability, but the upper stage is discarded each time—equivalent to throwing away a midsize jet airliner after every flight. Starship is different. If we can demonstrate full reusability for Starship—hopefully this year—it will be a profound advancement. It’s like airplanes：if you had to throw away a plane after each flight, tickets would be prohibitively expensive; but if you just need to refuel, it’s just fuel costs. With drastically reduced space access costs, deploying AI data centers in space becomes a logical next step. I think within two years, space will be the cheapest place to run AI. Building solar-powered AI data centers in space is an unquestionably excellent choice. If you place equipment in the shadowed area facing away from the sun, temperatures can drop to 3 Kelvin (about -270°C), which is ideal for cooling high-performance computing hardware.

埃隆·马斯克：SpaceX今年希望实现的关键突破是实现星际飞船的完全可重复使用。此前无人实现过火箭的完全可重复使用。猎鹰9号实现了部分可重复使用，但每次飞行后都会丢弃上面级——相当于每次飞行后都要丢弃一架中型喷气客机。星际飞船则不同。如果我们能实现星际飞船的完全可重复使用——希望今年就能实现——这将是一个重大突破。就像飞机：如果每次飞行后都必须丢弃飞机，机票价格将高得离谱；但若只需加油，就只是燃料成本问题。随着太空访问成本的大幅降低，在太空部署人工智能数据中心成为合乎逻辑的下一步。我认为两年内，太空将成为运行人工智能最经济的地方。在太空建造太阳能供电的人工智能数据中心无疑是绝佳选择。若将设备置于背向太阳的阴影区域，温度可降至3开尔文（约-270℃），这对高性能计算硬件的冷却堪称理想。

VIII. The Future of Artificial Intelligence and Intelligence Transcendence

八、人工智能的未来与智力超越

The Future of AI Intelligence

人工智能的未来

ELON MUSK：I can’t predict 10 years from now. But at the current rate, I think we might have AI that is smarter than any human by the end of this year. And I would say no later than next year. And then probably by 2030 or 2031, five years from now, AI will be smarter than all of humanity collectively.

埃隆·马斯克：我无法预测未来十年的发展趋势。但按照当前发展速度，我认为到今年年底，人工智能的智能水平可能已超越人类。最迟明年，甚至到2030或2031年，也就是五年后，人工智能的智能水平将超过全人类的总和。

IX. Inspiration and the Realization of Science Fiction

九、灵感来源与科学fiction变现实

Epiphanies, Curiosity, and Science Fiction as Science Fact

灵感与好奇心

LARRY FINK：As perhaps the most successful entrepreneur and industrialist of the 21st century and beyond, what inspired you? What is the foundation of your curiosity? Was there an “aha moment” or epiphany in your life and career?

拉里·芬克：作为21世纪乃至更久远时期最成功的企业家和实业家之一，是什么激发了您的灵感？您好奇心的源泉是什么？在您的生活和职业生涯中，是否曾有过某个“顿悟时刻”或灵光乍现的瞬间？

ELON MUSK：As a kid, I read a lot of science fiction, fantasy books, and comic books. I always loved technology. I never expected to be where I am today; it seems incredibly implausible. But I was inspired by reading books about the future, about science fiction. I guess I want to make science fiction not fiction—to turn science fiction into science fact. We want Star Trek’s Starfleet to be real：giant spaceships traveling through space, going to other planets, other star systems. My core philosophy is what I call “the philosophy of curiosity.” I want to understand the meaning of life. Is the Standard Model of physics correct regarding the origin of the universe and existence? What questions don’t we know to ask that we should ask? AI will help us with these things. I’m just trying to understand how we got here, what’s going on, what’s real, are there aliens? Maybe there are. If we have spaceships traveling to other star systems, we may encounter aliens and find many long-dead alien civilizations. But I just want to know what’s going on. I’m curious about the universe—that’s my philosophy.

埃隆·马斯克：小时候我读过大量科幻小说、奇幻作品和漫画书。我一直对科技充满热情，从未想过自己能走到今天这一步——这听起来简直不可思议。但正是那些描绘未来的科幻书籍激发了我的灵感。我想让科幻不再是虚构，而是科学事实。就像《星际迷航》里的星际舰队，我希望它们能真实存在：巨大的宇宙飞船穿梭太空，前往其他星球和恒星系统。我的核心理念就是所谓的“好奇心哲学”。我想理解生命的意义，物理学的标准模型是否正确解释了宇宙起源和存在本质？我们还有哪些未知的问题应该提出？人工智能将帮助我们解答这些疑问。我只是想弄清楚我们是如何来到这里的，宇宙中究竟发生了什么，哪些是真实的，是否存在外星生命？也许确实存在。如果我们真的有宇宙飞船前往其他恒星系统，或许会遇到外星人，发现早已灭绝的外星文明。但我的核心诉求就是探索宇宙奥秘——这就是我的哲学。

X. Mars Project and Final Message

十、火星计划与最后寄语

Mars, Travel, and Final Thoughts

火星与最后思考

LARRY FINK：What about Mars? How long does it take to get there?

拉里·芬克：火星呢？到那里需要多久？

ELON MUSK：It’s six months each way. But the planets only align every two years.

埃隆·马斯克：往返各需六个月。但行星对齐现象每两年才会出现一次。

LARRY FINK：I’ve been asked, isn’t that three years each way?

拉里·芬克：有人问我，这算不算每边三年？

ELON MUSK：No, six months each way.

埃隆·马斯克：不，往返各需六个月。

LARRY FINK：People often ask you, do you want to die on Mars?

拉里·芬克：常有人问你，你愿意去火星上死吗？

ELON MUSK：Yes, but not on impact. (Laughs)

埃隆·马斯克：是的，但不会在撞击时发生。（笑）

LARRY FINK：That’s a great answer. I hope this conversation has been insightful for everyone. I’m inspired by what you’ve accomplished, who you are, and your vision for the future.

拉里·芬克：这回答太棒了！希望这次对话能给大家带来启发。你取得的成就、你的人格魅力以及你对未来的愿景，都让我深受鼓舞。

ELON MUSK：Well, I would encourage everyone to be optimistic and excited about the future. Generally, for quality of life, it’s better to err on the side of being an optimist and wrong rather than a pessimist who’s always right.

埃隆·马斯克：我建议大家对未来保持乐观和兴奋。就生活质量而言，宁可犯错也要保持乐观，而不是永远正确地悲观。

注：本实录源自2026年1月22日达沃斯世界经济论坛，英文原文来自The Singju Post发布的完整记录，中文翻译为机翻，仅供参考。